Well, it’s a good thing I didn’t really bet on anything this NFL playoff season – I’d be crying all the way to the bank. To summarize thus far -
- Versus the spread – 2 wins, 6 losses
- Straight-up winners – 3 wins, 5 losses
I’m avoiding the painful details of last week. I’ve decided my motto is don’t look back; look ahead. That being said, I now face to conference championship games that I wouldn’t touch with a ten-foot pole in the real betting world. This isn’t reality, though, so here goes my picks -
- Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago
This is Game 1 of the “Really Crappy Turf Weekend”. Soldier Field is a wreck. I do believe there is one truth about poor field conditions – they help offenses. Defensive lineman can’t plant for blocking/rushing, and cover men can’t break on routes. With that in mind, it comes down to the two offenses. Sorry Bears fans – as long as Jay Cutler is only a throw away from disaster, I can’t get behind you. As well as the Bears did last weekend, there will still a couple of “WHAT THE —- ARE YOU THINKING, CUTLER?!?” throws. Luckily, they weren’t caught. I think the Bears have the potential for some success on the ground, but not “150+ rushing yards” success.
On the Packers side of things, Aaron Rodgers is playing in a different dimension right now – a dimension that allows him to see and do things that are simply not possible to the rest of us in three-dimensional space. I heard a statistic the other day that dumbfounded me. Last week, the Falcons had a free blitzer 15 times against the Packers (that means that 15 times, someone came in clean on Rodgers). Rodgers went 11 for 15 passing in those situations. That’s just not right, man… just not right. Green Bay should be able to deal with the Bears defense enough to let Rodgers be successful; maybe not 300+ yards successful, but successful enough to say…My Pick: Green Bay to cover the spread and win on the field.
- New York Jets (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
Welcome to Game 2 of the “Really Crappy Turf Weekend”. Heinz Field is really not much better than Soldier Field this weekend. Again, offense has the advantage. For the Jets, the on-again, off-again rushing game is key. New York can’t afford to put Mark Sanchez in a position to have to carry them. They did this last week; Sanchez never had to play from behind. The problem for the Jets this time, though, is playing against a Pittsburgh defense that is WAY better, WAY more physical and WAY more experienced than the Patriots defense of last week.
For Pittsburgh, they pose a unique challenge to the Jets defense this playoff season. So far, the Jets have played against two pure pocket-passers in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Credit the Jets for recognizing that blitzing is not the answer to everything, choosing instead a patient approach with a straight-up rush and excellent coverage. This week, though, you face Big Ben, New York. You face a quarterback that is as dangerous outside of the pocket as he is inside of the pocket. This is going to lead to some very interesting coverage challenges. Combine this with what I believe to be a more consistent (if not spectacular) rushing attack by the Steelers and I can only come to the conclusion that…My Pick: Pittsburgh to cover the spread and win on the field.
There you have it, folks. Stay tuned to see if I can change my prognosticating fortunes…
